This experiment has finally caught up.
Months ago, I thought it might be fun to bring you, dear reader, a different type of NFL betting guide. Every week it seems another blog or network or bombastic talking head gives you their ULTIMATE LOCK OF THE WEEK and picks against the spread. I thought it would be a good idea to showcase some bets to avoid. I mean, you can’t bet every game, right?
And who else is breaking down double digit point spreads or the ugliest games of the Sunday? Someone’s gotta shovel the shit.
I also thought it would be fun to actually pick the games I told you not to bet. Counterintuitive as it may seem, I wasn’t that bad betting the worst spreads of the week.
Then last Sunday rolled around.
I had my first 0-4 week after going 1-3 the week before. These Sunday’s are really starting to scare me.
And for the first time since week one, I have a winning percentage below 50 percent. My season record is now 27-31. Belgh.
So before I pray for a Christmas miracle to give me another undefeated Sunday, let me share some spreads to avoid.
Bengals at Houston (-7)
Santa didn’t give the Bengals or Texans shit this year.
Both teams, yes BOTH teams, are hot garbage. Don’t overreact to Cincinnati’s win on Monday night. And stop thinking that Deshaun Watson will save this team in 2020 (trust me I’ve been there). Just wait until next season when he gets a new coach, new GM, and a less idiotic Will Fuller.
Brandon Allen is expected to start for the Bengals after missing Monday night’s game against the Steelers due to injury. But it doesn’t matter. Do you really want to bet on either of these hopeless teams vying for a better draft pick?
Falcons at Chiefs (-10.5)
It’s the most hilarious team of the year. Matt Ryan and the Falcons just find a way to blow leads. Will they do it again this week? Will they even… lead at all in Arrowhead?
I don’t have high expectations, but 10.5 is a tough number bet, especially because this could be the last relevant game Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs play until mid January. Kansas City can clinch a first round bye with a win. But who’s to stop KC from running up the score early and sitting their starters late only for Atlanta to score some garbage time points. That’s what I see in my crystal ball. What would make you want to touch the largest spread of the week?
Colts at Steelers (+2)
This is the first time two winning teams have been in the Sunday Scaries since… I can’t remember. But Pittsburgh is scaring me.
The Steelers haven’t covered a game since week 11 and they’ve lost three in a row. Big Ben has been eating it for weeks and JuJu finally got smacked after weeks of TikToking in the endzone. This week, the WR said he’d stop… Thank you, baby jesus.
It boggles the mind that a Philip Rivers led Colts team is 10-4 and tied for the division lead, but here we are. 2020 has been strange for all of us. Indianapolis did not cover their last game against the Texans but they’ve won they’re last three. It’s easy to fade Pittsburgh right now but, at +2, Vegas thinks this game is more of a toss up. Who would you choose? I say neither. Hold off on betting these teams until the playoffs.
Eagles at Cowboys (+3)
Remember when a stupid sportswriter said in his NFC East preview that, “this year’s [divisional] title will be decided when Dallas and Philly meet in Week 16.”
Well, in fairness to that idiot, Dallas and Phillidelphia both have a chance to win the division. Yes, really. The NFC East still sucks. Andy Dalton is 3-4 in as a starter this year and Jalen Hurts is 1-1 but lost a close one in the desert last week. Carson Wentz, meanwhile, has been on the sidelines pouting.
According to the Upshot, the 4-8-1 Eagles, favorites this week on the road, still have a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs and winning the division. Do you like those odds and this spread? I’d stay away.
If you can’t resist…
So you know I went 0-4 last week. You know I just told you not to bet on four scary spreads. And you still want my takes? What the fuck is wrong with you!?
Moreover, what’s wrong with my season of steady picks? Can I get back to .500?
Let’s hope for a Christmas miracle.
- 7 scares me a little. I like Houston to win but by a touchdown? Maybe. I’d roll the dice if I had to. The Bengals have their eye on that No. 3 pick.
- If the Falcons play their cards right, they could have the #4 pick. Plus, who can stop KC right now? Answer, no one. Take the Chiefs to win big and lock up the #1 seed.
- It can’t get much worse for the Steelers after Monday night’s loss. But Mike Tomlin is too good of a coach to let his guys continue to play like doo doo. I’d take the points here.
- I took the Eagles last week and their game came down to the wire. This one will probably be tight too, but I’ll give the edge to Jalen Hurts and the favored Eagles.