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Deadspin’s 2021 NFL Divisional Round picks you can bank on

Graphic: Deadspin

If you just picked road teams ATS last weekend, you’re 5-1-1.

If you’re a smart gambler, congratulations, you had a great week. But there’s no such thing as “smart gambler.” You probably folded like me.

The only road teams I picked on Super Wild-Card weekend were the Ravens (check) and Bears (bad beat). So I’m currently 1-4-1. That’s not the playoff start I was hoping for, and these certainly are not bets to bank on … yet. But with four games in two days I have a chance to be back in this thing.

I’ve gone 4-0 before, and I expect to do it again.

Here’s who I like today.

Rams at Packers (-6.5)

Illustration for article titled Deadspin’s 2021 NFL Divisional Round picks you can bank on

Illustration: Getty Images

Jared Goff will get the start today after John Wolfrord was ruled out. Blake Bortles (remember him?) will back up Goff, who recently underwent thumb surgery on his throwing hand. And the spread against MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers is only… 6.5? Well, the Rams do have the league’s best defense (See Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald, etc.) and they just put up 30 on a 12-win team. So maybe LA has a shot to cover the spread?

The Pick: Haha, no. Don’t get too excited, Rams fans, that Seattle team wasn’t very good. These cheeseheads are legitimate contenders and I expect them to humble L.A. after a week of rest. If this spread was over a touchdown I’d consider taking the Rams and their top-ranked defense. But I feel fine laying 6.5 points here.

Weather: Cloudy and 35° — basically beach season in Green Bay.

Ravens at Bills (-2.5)

Illustration for article titled Deadspin’s 2021 NFL Divisional Round picks you can bank on

Illustration: Getty Images (Getty Images)

The Ravens are hot — straight up and against the spread. They’ve won their last six games and covered their last seven. But they get a Bills team at home coming off their first playoff win since the 1990s. Josh Allen’s squad has won seven straight and, during the regular season, his offense ranked second in the league in yards per game and third in passing yards per game. So, can Baltimore’s defense slow the Bills down?

The Pick: There could be some snow in Buffalo tonight and people are losing their goddamn minds. Earlier this week, Lamar Jackson revealed that he’s never played football in the snow, giving bored sports media types something to talk about. Last week, Jackson couldn’t win a playoff game. This week, he can’t win a snow game. Next week, they’ll say he can’t beat the Chiefs. I’m sick of the speculation. Take the points and the Ravens.

Weather: 32° with a chance of snow showers. Don’t make a big deal about it, please.

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